The Moving Median Method to Estimate Normal Egg Parameters for Alligator Populations in the Southern Everglades, Southwest Louisiana, and Lake Griffin
Introduction
The environmental status of a lake or area of habitat is known to affect reproductive parameters of its alligator
population.1,2,3,4,5 Therefore, an annual evaluation of the reproductive status of the alligator population in an area like the Southern Everglades
(Everglades National Park) is also a continuing indication of environmental status and quality of this habitat. The determination of reproductive potential and
egg parameter values for this population can be done with a minimum of disturbance; while the capture and evaluation of a large sample of adult alligators from
the area may not be practical or desirable. In our study, reproductive potential and normal egg parameters were determined and control charts made from data
obtained during a 4-year study of the Everglades National Park, an 11-year study of Southwest Louisiana (Rockefeller Refuge) and an 11-year study of Lake Griffin
in Central Florida. Our primary objective was to determine reproductive potential and normal egg parameter values in order to establish control charts for the
study areas. The Rockefeller Refuge was considered to be a protected, stable, highly productive control area. Lake Griffin was included in the study because it
underwent severe environmental changes between 1994 and 19981 and an understanding of the effect of environmental changes on reproductive potential and
egg parameter values is needed. Reproductive potential and egg parameters were characteristic and relatively constant for the Southern Everglades and Southwest
Louisiana over the study period; however, changes that occurred in the environmental status of Lake Griffin in 1997 and 1998 caused significant deviations from
the normal values established between 1988 and 1994. The data suggested that changes in values might have been caused by the exposure of the alligator population
to a hepatic toxin.2
Materials and Methods
Random samples of 90 to120 eggs were collected annually for 4 years (1995 through 1998) from 30 to 35 different nests at the Everglades
National Park in the Southern Everglades. The area studied is approximately 500,000 acres. Sample size was estimated to be approximately 12.5% of the eggs in each
nest based on a determined average annual clutch size in the area of 24 eggs. The number of nests sampled represents 75% of the approximately 40 nests projected
for the study area for a normal year. All eggs were incubated for 14 days and those that failed to produce a detectable band (attached chorioallantois) were
designated infertile (or had suffered very early embryonic death). Infertile eggs were used to determine egg parameters. Samples of infertile eggs from each of a
minimum of 20 clutches were collected each year from the Rockefeller Refuge in Southwest Louisiana over an 11-year study period from 1988 to 1998. Eggs were
collected from 41 to 52 nests on Lake Griffin in 1988, 1993, 1994, 1996, 1997 and 1998.2 Eggs collected in 1996, 1997 and 1998 were considered out of
statistical control and were not used in the determination of normal values. The following measurements and calculations were made on infertile eggs: egg length;
egg width; egg weight; egg volume; calculated egg volume; volume error (% deviation of measured volume from the calculated volume); length/width ratio; shell
weight; % of the egg represented by shell; shell thickness; shell density; yolk weight; % of the egg represented by yolk; membrane weight; % of the egg
represented by membrane.1 Descriptive statistics including an examination of the distribution of values for each egg parameter for each year,
stem-and-leaf plots (or a horizontal bar chart), box plots and normal quantile plots were made using the SAS statistical package. Median values for egg parameters
were determined for each year of the study period and the data examined to confirm that the samples were described by the same distribution. Median plots and
moving median plots of 3 were made to estimate the value for each parameter and the plots examined for trends. (Figs 1,2,3) A mean and standard deviation was
determined from the moving median values and control limits were defined as 2 standard deviations from the mean value. The mean value was considered to be the
"normal" value for the study area.
Results (Table 1 & Figs 1, 2, 3)
Mean values and their standard deviations are given in Table 1. Data for the Southern Everglades were collected for 4 years, Southwest
Louisiana for 11 years and 3 usable samples (1988, 1993 and 1994) were collected from Lake Griffin over an 11-year period.
Table 1. Mean values and their standard deviations of egg parameters for Southern Everglades, Southwest Louisiana and Lake Griffin.
|
Southern
Everglades |
Southwest
Louisiana |
Lake
Griffin |
Egg length (cm) |
7.25 (0.02) |
7.26 (0.04) |
7.57 (0.01) |
Egg width (cm) |
4.079 (0.04) |
4.20 (0.03) |
4.47 (0.04) |
Egg weight (grams) |
68.85 (0.46) |
72.4 (1.47) |
86.0 (0.5) |
Egg volume error |
-1.65 |
-2.17 |
-0.29 |
Length/width ratio |
1.766 (0.008) |
1.721 (0.009) |
1.684(0.001) |
Shell weight (grams) |
7.39 (0.16) |
7.59 (0.14) |
8.89 (0.16) |
% of the egg represented by shell |
11.14 (0.09) |
10.57 (0.30) |
11.0 (0.05) |
Shell thickness (mm) |
0.430 (0.017) |
0.433 (0.010) |
0.450 |
Shell density |
2.14 (0.04) |
2.12 (0.02) |
2.10 |
Yolk weight (grams) |
32.9 |
31.9 |
36.2 |
% of the egg represented by yolk |
48.0 (0.29) |
44.0 (1.88) |
48.0 (0.29) |
% of the egg represented by membrane |
1.06 (0.06) |
1.08 (0.04) |
1.06 (0.06) |
No significant trends were found over the study periods for Southwest Louisiana or the Southern Everglades but trends were observed in
Lake Griffin for the years 1996, 1997 and 1998. These years for Lake Griffin were not used in determining normal egg parameter values for egg length, egg weight,
length/width ratio, eccentricity, yolk weight, % yolk, shell thickness and shell density. Most of the parameters for Lake Griffin were considered to be out of
statistical control for the years 1996, 1997 and 1998 as is shown for yolk weight (Fig 3).
Click on an image to see a larger view.
|
Figure 1. Control chart for egg size in Southwest Louisiana over 10 years. |
|
Figure 2. Determined mean values of shell weight for 6 populations. |
|
Figure 3. Control chart of yolk weight for Lake Griffin 1988 to 1997. |
Discussion
In the present study, egg parameters remained relatively constant or in statistical control over a 4-year period for the Southern
Everglades, over an 11-year period for Southwest Louisiana and over a 6-year period (1988 to 1994) for Lake Griffin. However, for Lake Griffin, egg length, egg
width, egg weight, egg volume error, shell weight, % of the egg represented by shell, shell density, yolk weight, and % of the egg represented by yolk moved
distinctly out of either the upper or lower limits of the control chart during the years 1996, 1997 and 1998. An example of a control chart for Lake Griffin (yolk
weight) is shown in Fig 3. Reproductive potential for the lake in 1997 had decreased to 2.7% of its 12-year average prior to 1995 and there was a sharp increase
in dead adult alligators found on the lake in 1997 and 1998 by the Florida Game and Freshwater Fish Commission. It seems reasonable to assume that severe
environmental changes occurred in the lake between 1994 and 1996. The first quantitative data indicating possible environmental changes were the reports on
declining reproductive potential and changes in alligator egg parameters for the lake.1 Early embryonic deaths, increased yolk size, decreased shell %,
increased shell density and decreased hatchling vigor2 were believed to be consistent with the presence of a hepatic toxin in the adult female
alligator population. The presence of the toxin was first detected in 1996 but probably entered the system between 1994 and 1996 (Fig 3).
Acknowledgements
This research was supported as a part of the ATLSS project of the Dept. of the Interior (USGS) and the National Park Service. The authors
wish to thank Dr. Ruth Elsey of the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries, the Florida alligator farmers, the Florida Game and Freshwater Fish Commission
and especially Mr. Arnold M. Brunell, Mr. Lindsey Hoard and Mr. Allen R. Woodward for providing their information and assistance. Mr. Wayne T. McClellan and Mr.
Joseph P. Cardeilhac provided technical assistance.
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